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Фонд "Петербургская политика" и холдинг "Минченко консалтинг" выпустили новый рейтинг политической выживаемости губернаторов. Чистыми "двоечниками" стали Вадим Потомский (Орловская обл.), Валерий Шанцев (Нижегородская обл.) и Вячеслав Наговицын (Бурятия), сообщает "Коммерсантъ".

Прошлый рейтинг выживаемости губернаторов был опубликован больше года назад, за это время в стране прошли выборы в Госдуму. «Они не стали ключевым тестом на политическую выживаемость губернаторов. Более значимыми являются не конкретные проценты и количество избранных депутатов, а влияние кампании на внутриэлитные балансы в регионах и социально-политические последствия, в том числе и уровень удовлетворенности отдельных групп населения их итогами»,— считают авторы рейтинга. Эксперты обращают внимание на то, что приближающиеся выборы президента в 2018 году могут «мотивировать федеральную власть на демонстрацию сильных шагов и при отставках глав регионов, и при стимулировании яркости и конкурентности губернаторских кампаний».

Впервые в качестве отдельного приложения к рейтингу выживаемости губернаторов появился список региональных чиновников, которые за год были привлечены к ответственности или в отношении которых расследуются уголовные дела. Больше всего «арестантов» оказалось в Пермском крае — четверо, среди которых все были действующими министрами регионального правительства. Это министр транспорта Алмаз Закиев, министр физкультуры и спорта Павел Лях, глава регионального минсвязи Евгений Балуев и министр строительства и ЖКХ Виктор Федоровский.

Четверо задержанных из Хабаровского края — причем двое чиновников занимали высокие посты, а двое руководили министерствами в прошлом. Речь идет о бывшем зампреде краевого правительства Сергее Игнатовиче, другом зампреде Николае Кравчуке, экс-министре строительства Андрее Скоморохове и бывшем министре имущественных отношений Александре Давиденко.

Антикоррупционный тренд воспринимается как самостоятельный и необязательно соотносится с эффективностью губернатора в плане экономики или политики, комментирует глава фонда «Петербургская политика» Михаил Виноградов, сообщает РБК.

Авторы рейтинга предполагают, что центр может пойти на назначение во время кампании «технических» врио губернаторов, чтобы баллотирующиеся главы регионов участвовали в выборах «на общих основаниях». «Возможна также постановка вопроса об осмысленности практики предоставления губернаторских постов представителям оппозиционных партий (Орловская, Смоленская области) — конституционное большинство “Единой России” в Госдуме снижает необходимость в этом. “Справедливая Россия” такой вакансии в Забайкалье уже лишилась, а КПРФ продемонстрировала способность добиваться победы своих кандидатов на прямых выборах»,— также прогнозируют авторы рейтинга.

Губернаторские кампании в следующем году пройдут в 14 регионах. Главы четырех из них получили в рейтинге выживаемости «двойки». Вячеславу Наговицыну (Бурятия, в прошлом рейтинге получил «3») в упрек ставятся «конфликты с местными элитами», Виктору Басаргину (Пермский край, в прошлом рейтинге «3» с минусом) — «отсутствие понятной стратегии». Свердловский губернатор Евгений Куйвашев набрал два балла с плюсом. «Близкий срок окончания полномочий ставит вопрос об избираемости на конкурентных выборах с учетом дефицита харизмы и низкой популярности»,— указывают авторы рейтинга. Такую же оценку заслужил глава Саратовской области Валерий Радаев: «Дефицит политической субъектности делает его уязвимой фигурой для оппонентов и снижает ценность для сторонников».

«Эти губернаторы — последние из назначенных глав, они не получили санкцию на досрочные выборы, возникает вопрос об их способности переизбраться и сейчас. С другой стороны, есть ожидания, что руководство новой администрации президента представит свои приоритеты в кадровой политике, заявит о своих региональных амбициях»,— поясняет глава фонда «Петербургская политика» Михаил Виноградов. По его словам, эти изменения могут негативно сказаться на перспективах Валерия Радаева.

Губернаторы еще трех выборных регионов получили «тройки с минусом». Это Александр Худилайнен (Карелия), Сергей Митин (Новгородская область) и Сергей Жвачкин (Томская область).

Только один глава субъекта, где предстоят кампании, получил «пятерку с минусом» — это Дмитрий Овсянников (Севастополь). Авторы рейтинга при этом отмечают, что он «не имеет достаточного опыта в публичной политике, стоит перед задачей наращивания электорального рейтинга». На четыре балла были оценены шансы выживаемости врио главы Ярославской области — экс-сотрудника ФСО Дмитрия Миронова, врио губернатора Кировской области — бывшего руководителя Росреестра Игоря Васильева, врио главы Калининградской области Антона Алиханова. «Четверки» получили также Евгений Савченко (Белгородская область) и Владимир Волков (Мордовия). «Тройка» у рязанского губернатора Олега Ковалева.

«Двойки» получили и несколько глав регионов, уже прошедших выборы: Валерий Шанцев (Нижегородская область), Андрей Турчак (Псковская область), Вадим Потомский (Орловская область) и Николай Меркушкин (Самарская область).

Перед президентскими выборами, по словам Михаила Виноградова, «ставится задача не количественной, а качественной поддержки власти» избирателями. «Отставки губернаторов могут стать кивком в сторону критично настроенных избирателей, кого-то из очевидных аллергенов могут убрать»,— считает эксперт.

Политтехнолог Дмитрий Гусев уверен, что о «выживаемости губернаторов» в первую очередь следует судить по соответствию тем критериям, которые перед ними поставил Кремль. Он пояснил, что через полтора года состоятся выборы президента и особое внимание будет уделено работе глав регионов — тому, как они развивают свои регионы и удерживают там социальную ситуацию.

Отметим, что «пятерок», по версии экспертов, заслужили только шесть губернаторов — Рустам Минниханов (Татарстан), Рамзан Кадыров (Чечня), Сергей Собянин (Москва), Александр Дрозденко (Ленинградская область), Алексей Дюмин (Тульская область) и уже упоминавшийся Дмитрий Овсянников.


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Бывший помощник заместителя министра транспорта России приедет на работу в Бурятию

15.03 11:20 371

Уволенный директор Кыренской средней школы Вячеслав Жамбалов не добился в суде восстановления на работе.

10.03 09:27 Fb5b86bd814baee9f5938af19055948e

Слушания пройдут с 20 по 31 марта.

09.03 23:47 231397-s1

По итогам зимы 2016-2017 годов общероссийская общественная организация «Зеленый патруль» составила «Экологический рейтинг субъектов РФ»

09.03 17:47 Vmnews-dot-ru

Правительство России выделит в 2017 году около 20 млрд рублей тем регионам, которые разработают собственные программы формирования и развития комфортной городской среды. Пока неизвестно, принимает ли в федеральной программе участие и Республика Бурятия

09.03 17:23 Forestfire2

Минприроды России определило "горимые" субъекты Российской Федерации, оценив эффективность работы региональных властей с лесными пожарами

06.03 02:53 9330-001

В Комитете гражданских инициатив Алексея Кудрина прогнозируют неуклонный рост протестов в России

03.03 18:29 Rmedium-47382

Такое решение принял сегодня Советский районный суд г. Улан-Удэ

03.03 17:03 0-7ceb0-b475ff7f-xl

На этой неделе Верховный суд Республики Бурятия вынес решение о сносе построек у одного из жителей Тункинского района, которому земельный участок был выделен постановлением районной администрации

03.03 14:55 Deputat-06

Правоохранительными органами задержан Баир Балханов.

ОБНОВЛЕНО

03.03 12:45 9375

Соответствующий проект готовит Минэкономразвития с участием заинтересованных министерств

02.03 10:31 Img-4155

Росстат раскрыл средние зарплаты российских чиновников в 2016 году